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1/ Vinfast US sales:
From Vinfast own words, per SEC filing page F-39:
So 0 sales in Q2 2023 and 400K USD in Q1 2023 in the US. Why ?
So much for 1600 car "sold" through Aug 2023 reported by Marklines !
2/ Real EVs sales for Q2: $54M
The exact figure is in: Sales (or stuffing) to GSM in Q2: $245.1M (page 79), out of total $299.1M of EV car sales (page F-40). This number makes sense: about 7000 cars stuffed to GSM and that gives about $35K/car, which is about right in the ball park.
Thus, real EV sales in Q2 is $54M, roughly the same (or slightly increase about 8%) from $50M in Q1 (source: Form F-4/A (sec.gov) page F-81). This definitely makes sense and is inline with projection I have made a few months ago: real EV sales roughly the same Q2 to Q1. Nothing warrant the huge "five fold increase" in the news headlines (which includes GSM stuffing).
3/ Cost per car:
As you can see, rev/car is roughly the same but cost/car drop drastically. This is due to the cost indeed includes amortization of equipment. As the number of cars sold increase, the weight of amortization reduces. We can try to solve for the manufacturing cost and amortization cost.
Let's call average manufacturing cost (bill of materials) $x / car, and assume they use a fixed amortization / quarter, $y. We have:
1780 * x + y = 207,820,000
9535 * x + y = 413,380,000
Solving for x and y gives:
x = $26,506 and y = $160.64M
Thus, there you go, the average bill of material (BOM) for VF8 and VFe34 is about $26.5K. Since the majority is VFe34, say about 80%, we can guestimate that average fixed cost of VFe34 is about $24.5K and cost of VF8 is about $35K, which make senses for auto industry veteran without doing any calculation, but here we have facts and figures.
You can break down further x into x1 and x2 for VF8 and VFe34 cost, knowing the composition of the sales in Q1 and Q2 for VFe34 and VF8 (these info are public), and with one more data point for Q3, should be able to solve for separate cost of VF8 and VFe34. Too much hassle but the quick analysis above is good for now.
VFe34 sale price with battery is about $32K MSRP before tax. Throw in marketing cost, R&D cost and VFe34 cost is around $28-30K/car for 50,000 sales volume, so the margin on their car is ok for now compared to other manufacturer, if not a bit thin. But due to low sales volume, they are selling at a loss when including the amortization in, cost around $43K/car, as shown in the table above. The situation will improve if they can sell more cars. Then the variable cost will come down.
After all, all boils down to selling more cars. A lot more. As simple as that. Cannot be simpler.
source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1913510/000119312523243043/d541681df1a.htm
1/ Doanh số Vinfast tại Mỹ:
Từ chính lời của Vinfast, theo trang F-39 của hồ sơ SEC:
Vậy là không có doanh số nào trong Quý 2 năm 2023 và 400.000 USD trong Quý 1 năm 2023 tại Mỹ. Tại sao vậy?
Vậy là hết 1.600 xe "đã bán" tính đến tháng 8 năm 2023 theo báo cáo của Marklines!
2/ Doanh số xe điện thực tế trong Quý 2: 54 triệu đô la
Con số chính xác được thể hiện trong: Doanh số (hoặc doanh số bán) cho GSM trong Quý 2: 245,1 triệu đô la (trang 79), trong tổng số 299,1 triệu đô la doanh số bán xe điện (trang F-40). Con số này khá hợp lý: khoảng 7000 xe được bán cho GSM, tương đương khoảng 35.000 đô la/xe, một con số khá hợp lý.
